Playing for pride
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According to the Perfect Script which would have been written for this series, both teams should have come into this last Test level at 1-1, with all to play for in the decider. The actual events have drifted miles away from that script, but despite Australia having clinched the Border-Gavaskar Trophy so comprehensively, the Mumbai Test will be anything but inconsequential.
To an Indian team so used to winning in the past couple of seasons, the humiliations at Bangalore and Nagpur have been hard blows. The hurt was apparent in Dravid's voice when he refuted claims that India's defeats had been due to poor planning: "It would be unfair to say we went into the series without any game plan. We spent a lot of time discussing their batsmen, discussing different options, and different strategies. But they countered them [the plans] better than we did." The Indians are playing for pride here, but that's a strong enough incentive for them to come out with their best efforts. Ricky Ponting was alive to the fact that the Indians have little to lose from this game, and the relative lack of pressure here could unshackle their batsmen.
Another factor which could hugely help the Indians is the possible absence of Glenn McGrath, who has choked the top order so effectively that this famed batting line-up is looking far removed from the one that scored a deluge of runs in Australia. Ponting admitted that McGrath, who is suffering from flu, hadn't practised in the last two days, and that a final decision regarding his availability would only be taking tomorrow morning. If McGrath doesn't play, Brett Lee will come in, and that will surely mean more runscoring opportunities than McGrath conceded (though that will probably be accompanied with more clangs to the helmets).
The other aspect in India's favour is the pitch. Though there is a sprinkling of grass, the surface itself is absolutely dry, and is expected to assist the spinners early in the game. The track even had Ponting wondering if he should play two, or even three, spinners; the smirk in his voice suggested, though, that he would provide the Indians no such luxury. Cameron White did have a bowl in the nets, but the half-trackers he sent down would have convinced no-one that he deserved a place in the team - Ponting himself admitted that the best possible Australian team would take the field, and the maximum concession that India can expect is a half-fit McGrath being left out.
Apart from the possible absence of McGrath, Australia will make another change to their line-up, but this one will only strengthen their batting - Ponting will take his customary No. 3 spot, relieving Simon Katich of that position and Adam Gilchrist of the captaincy, but Darren Lehmann will miss out.
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Dravid, meanwhile, did indicate that the Indians were seriously toying with the idea of playing three spinners, and have Sachin Tendulkar share the new ball with Zaheer Khan. Tendulkar himself did everything to prove himself worthy of the new ball - bowling seam-up in the nets, he beat Dravid four times in six balls, on each occasion with superb away-going deliveries which drew a stroke, then moved just enough to miss the edge. Whether Tendulkar can sustain such a spell against Matthew Hayden and Justin Langer is another matter, though.
Dravid then went on to say that the fight for the last spot was between Ashish Nehra and a third spinner - the fact that he didn't mention who that third spinner would be suggested, perhaps, that Murali Kartik might yet win a spot ahead of Harbhajan Singh, who, Dravid clarified, was fully fit for this Test.
This Test will also throw light on India's bench-strength in wicketkeeping and opening batting. Dinesh Karthik and Gautam Gambhir are certain to play, after India left out Dheeraj Jadhav and SS Paul from the 14-man squad, and while it would be too early to pass verdicts on them after just one game, their performances here will at least offer indications of whether they have what it takes to cut it at this level.
This series started off with huge expectations, much of it unfair - you cannot have classics like 2001 or 2003-04 every time two teams clash. India's lacklustre performance has ensured that expectations from the Mumbai Test have taken a nosedive. That in itself might lift the Indian team to deliver a memorable finale to a hopelessly one-sided series.
India (probable) 1 Gautam Gambhir, 2 Virender Sehwag, 3 Rahul Dravid (capt), 4 Sachin Tendulkar, 5 VVS Laxman, 6 Mohammad Kaif, 7 Dinesh Karthik (wk), 8 Anil Kumble, 9 Harbhajan Singh, 10 Zaheer Khan, 11 Ashish Nehra.
Australia (probable) 1 Matthew Hayden, 2 Justin Langer, 3 Ricky Ponting (capt), 4 Damien Martyn, 5 Simon Katich, 6 Michael Clarke, 7 Adam Gilchrist (wk), 8 Brett Lee, 9 Shane Warne, 10 Michael Kasprowicz, 11 Jason Gillespie.
S Rajesh is assistant editor of Wisden Cricinfo.