Australia 1/3 favourites to win decider

Following two great games of one-day cricket, New Zealand are 9/4 to win the third match and take the Chappell-Hadlee series. Australia are 1/3 favourites.

The pitch is a big factor which should be taken into account by all punters. Rain has prevented preparation of a new surface at the Gabba in Brisbane. and so the groundsman is using the same pitch that was used for last weekend's game between Queensland and Tasmania. That match resulted in a 94-run win for the Queensland Bulls.

The Gabba averages just over 4.5 runs per over in one-day internationals, historically slightly favouring the side batting second. Adjusting the analysis to the last ten matches at the ground, the ratio is exactly 50:50, with the average run rate slightly higher at 4.87 runs per over. These figures suggest that anything in excess of 250 should be a challenging total to chase.

Adam Gilchrist is 7/1 favourite in the Man-of-the-Match betting. Nathan Astle, the first-match hero, is 11/1, alongside New Zealand's captain, Stephen Fleming, who has mustered just 34 runs in the two matches so far. Kyle Mills, who so nearly led the Black Caps to victory in the second match at Sydney, is an enticing 20/1 bet.

Chris Harris is out - perhaps for the last time - and is replaced by Tama Canning. After an inauspicious debut in the second ODI at Lahore (4 overs for 34, and a duck), he took the only two Pakistan wickets to fall in the fourth match of the series at Rawalpindi, after which 2 for 59 in the following match and an unbeaten 23 in a losing cause showed steady improvement. Canning is an interesting 25/1 to win the Man of the Match award at Brisbane.