How the teams can make the cut
England's unexpected victory against Sri Lanka on Friday has thrown Group B wide open, with all four teams in with a chance of making the semi-finals
S Rajesh
26-Sep-2009
England's unexpected victory against Sri Lanka on Friday has thrown Group B wide open, with all four teams in with a chance of making the semi-finals. Here's a look at what each of the four teams need to do to make the cut.
England
The win against Sri Lanka gives them some breathing space. If England beat South Africa, they will surely get into the last four, regardless of other results. On the other hand, if they lose the last two, they'll definitely be out. If England lose to South Africa and beat New Zealand, they'll want New Zealand to beat Sri Lanka. Else, three teams will be tied on four points (while New Zealand will have zero), and net run-rates will come into play.
The win against Sri Lanka gives them some breathing space. If England beat South Africa, they will surely get into the last four, regardless of other results. On the other hand, if they lose the last two, they'll definitely be out. If England lose to South Africa and beat New Zealand, they'll want New Zealand to beat Sri Lanka. Else, three teams will be tied on four points (while New Zealand will have zero), and net run-rates will come into play.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka are in a peculiar situation - they might make the semi-finals even if they lose to New Zealand, but on the other hand, they might miss out even if they beat New Zealand. Here's how: if they lose to New Zealand, and if England win their last two matches, then England will have three wins, while the other three teams will finish with one victory each, bringing in net run rates to decide on the second semi-finalist.
Sri Lanka are in a peculiar situation - they might make the semi-finals even if they lose to New Zealand, but on the other hand, they might miss out even if they beat New Zealand. Here's how: if they lose to New Zealand, and if England win their last two matches, then England will have three wins, while the other three teams will finish with one victory each, bringing in net run rates to decide on the second semi-finalist.
If Sri Lanka beat New Zealand, and if England lose to South Africa and beat New Zealand, three teams will again be tied, this time on six points, bringing run rates into play. Sri Lanka's best bet is to beat New Zealand, and then hope that England either win both their remaining matches, or lose them both.
South Africa
Like Sri Lanka, South Africa too depend on other results. If they lose to England, they'll have to hope New Zealand have beaten Sri Lanka but lose to England, so that England finish with three wins, while three teams battle for the second spot.
Like Sri Lanka, South Africa too depend on other results. If they lose to England, they'll have to hope New Zealand have beaten Sri Lanka but lose to England, so that England finish with three wins, while three teams battle for the second spot.
If South Africa beat England, and if England lose to New Zealand, then the home team will surely be through. However, if South Africa win their last game, and New Zealand lose both their matches, then three teams will be tied on four points.
New Zealand
A defeat against Sri Lanka will knock them out of the tournament, regardless of other results in the group. If they beat Sri Lanka, New Zealand can make it even if they lose to England, if South Africa lose their last game against England (three teams on two points; NRR comes into play).
A defeat against Sri Lanka will knock them out of the tournament, regardless of other results in the group. If they beat Sri Lanka, New Zealand can make it even if they lose to England, if South Africa lose their last game against England (three teams on two points; NRR comes into play).
If New Zealand win both their matches, they'll definitely make the cut, along with the winner of the South Africa-England clash. New Zealand and England are thus the two teams who can qualify without depending on other results.
S Rajesh is stats editor of Cricinfo