Skill v luck: a tale of three spinners

Before this Test match, one of the last snapshots of Jeetan Patel in international cricket was that of him on the way to square leg when facing Dale Steyn with the score on 62 for 8 in Port Elizabeth in January 2013. With BJ Watling fighting at the other end on 25. Patel was bowled.

If you are a New Zealand cricketer, you are known for making the most out of the limited resources available, through acumen, through spirit and through courage. The last thing you want to be known for in New Zealand is a soft dismissal. The tag just sticks. It is no surprise then that when three-and-a-half years later Patel was remembered again, he had almost given up on wearing that black cap again. Even New Zealand hadn't thought of him until Mark Craig got injured.

In this second life, which might not extend to any cricket outside India, Patel first showed improvement as a spin bowler. A wiser and fitter man now, leading wicket-taker in this year's county championship, he bowled at an optimum pace for a spinner in Indian conditions without overly sacrificing his length. Ajinkya Rahane said he was the toughest bowler to face on the first day of the Test in which fast bowlers have done most of the wicket-taking. It was with the bat, though, that he had come a full circle. Once again walking out to join that fighter Watling, once again during a collapse, out to face a hat-trick ball in fading light.

How was Patel going to react to this déjà vu cricket had given him? He went after the hat-trick ball, but didn't move away from the stumps. Still he came pretty close playing what could be seen as a soft shot in a time of strife. When he drove at the next ball - this one was slightly fuller and hence he connected properly - it seemed like there might have been a plan to look for runs because the pitch was doing too much and might have undone the defence of a No. 9 anyway.

Patel had to survive only one more over before the light faded enough for the umpires to take players off the field. This morning, the same intent was clear as he punched the first ball down the ground, between bowler and mid-off for four. Watling kept his vigil going at the other end, and Patel looked to keep scoring. If a drive went gracefully through cover, an edge would fly wide of slips. Once in his 20s, Patel began to rely less on luck and more on finesse.

Ravindra Jadeja's first ball of the day was driven through cover for four. A sweep for four soon followed. Then came three boundaries in the same Jadeja over. A short ball cut away, two full ones flicked wide of mid-on. He was going with the spin, against the spin, and everything was connecting. With Watling solid at the other end, with runs flowing from Patel's end, with Virat Kohli getting increasingly impatient, New Zealand fans would have just started wondering if this side was going to pull off another scarcely believable escape.

Cricket was about to play a cruel joke now. Playing back to a ball from Jadeja with flatter trajectory but still on a full length, Patel was caught so plumb he almost started to walk. It turned out Jadeja's front foot had failed to stay behind the line, though. This was a man who had bowled three no-balls in 4446 deliveries in Test cricket before this series. It just so happened that Patel caught Jadeja on a streak during which he had just bowled a fourth no-ball in 480 deliveries this series. Cricket was smiling. It was giving Patel yet another chance. Cricket was obviously only going to snatch it away again.

R Ashwin was Kohli's fourth choice on the day. Perhaps, while others were doing the damage, Kohli wanted to rest the finger of his main weapon; Ashwin has been bowling with some discomfort thanks to a corn on the middle finger of his right hand. Thirteen overs into the day's play, Kohli finally went to Ashwin. Jadeja had already bowled four overs for 25 runs. He had been attacked right away. There was no reason to not look to attack Ashwin if Patel got one in his zone. This is how he had got so far, and he now had his eye in.

The first ball was full enough, outside off, the seam rotating towards fine leg, an offbreak. Patel looked to play it with the turn, but the ball pitched and almost changed direction. The ball straightening is enough to defeat you once you have committed to a shot, but this one did more than that and lobbed up for an easy catch. A commentator on air wondered if Patel had played a bad shot in his anxiety to get to his fifty - he was three short. It might have looked like that on first viewing, but Patel had been unlucky here. He was playing the way he had played until then, but Ashwin's natural variation did him in.

It is quite possible Ashwin didn't know this ball was not going to turn, but he had given it the best opportunity to not turn. Therein lies the skill of Ashwin and Jadeja. Natural variation is a part of the game. You are bowling on soil, over five days, with a leather ball stitched with a hard seam. It won't always behave as expected. India have derived more natural variation simply because they have put themselves in a position to do so. And that has not just come through accuracy. If you look at visiting spinners, the seam position on their offbreaks is at 45 degrees, or one to seven on a clock. Asian finger spinners have the skill to bowl an offbreak with the seam parallel to the ground, or three to nine on the clock. This gives them the possibility of landing the ball on the leather and bringing in the possibility of that variation. If it lands on the seam it turns.

It is not a matter of just flipping the seam in the hand and bowling the way Ashwin and Jadeja do. It takes hours of practice and strong wrists. Watch Ashwin's instructional video on bcci.tv. His offspinning action is like turning a doorknob. Try sending a leather ball across 22 yards with that action. It is bloody difficult. Both Ashwin and Jadeja can keep doing this seemingly tirelessly. With Ashwin it becomes even more difficult because he doesn't bowl all his balls this way. Sometimes the seam comes out at 45 degrees, sometimes parallel. He bowls the seam-up arm ball. He bowls carrom balls. He bowls them all accurately. Don't undermine the role of drift in Patel's dismissal either. Ever since he has sorted his action out, Ashwin gets beautiful drift and dip on his offbreaks.

Cricket is a game of luck where you can't leave things to luck. All you do is try your best to eliminate it as a batsman, and try to put yourself in the best position to catch some luck. The more you try to understand it, the more it can drive you to insanity. Sometimes you just sit back and watch the drama.