Where the game could be won and lost for India and South Africa
As South Africa take on India in a virtual quarter-final in the Champions Trophy, we take a look at where the game could be won and lost for both sides
In both games so far, India have batted first, and true to their template since World Cup 2015, tended to conserve wickets till the last ten overs. As a result, their run rates between overs 21 to 40 have hovered around the 5.4 mark, before skyrocketing to 11.61 in the last ten. While their death overs run rate compensates to an extent for the lull in between, pressing the accelerate button earlier could well be the difference between a competitive total and a match-winning one, especially against powerful batting units like South Africa and England.
Jasprit Bumrah has fast earned a reputation as one of the best bowlers at the death in theT20 format, and his ODI numbers do not look bad either. Take a closer look, though, and there is an interesting dichotomy : in four innings where India have defended totals, Bumrah has three wickets at 57.33, and an economy rate of 5.93. They are all a far cry from his overall average of 25.09, at an economy rate of 4.9. With India's bowling attack having taken just one wicket in the last game, Shami offers a genuine wicket-taking option with a strike rate of 24.89.
In both of South Africa's games, Morne Morkel has come on to bowl after the opening pair failed to produce a breakthrough. And he struck both times, with two against Pakistan. With little swing on offer across venues so far, bowlers hitting the deck have had a lot more success, like Mark Wood for England. Considering his excellent record against India - Morkel has 25 wickets at 21 in 14 matches - there should be little doubt that he should get the new ball.
De Kock averages 74.11 against India, the highest among batsmen with a minimum of 500 runs against them, and each one of his five hundreds against them have resulted in wins. If at all he would have fancied facing anyone to make a big score and stamp his authority on this tournament, it would be India.
JP Duminy has just four fifties in his last 31 innings, and his form would be an area of concern in South Africa's middle order. If AB de Villiers misfires again, the onus would be on Duminy, the second-most experienced ODI player in the squad, to make a match-winning contribution.