Chronicle of a collapse foretold - Pakistan's meltdown in Multan

The fog that hovered over the Multan Cricket Stadium has dissipated, and the sun is shining. England's lead spinner, Jack Leach, doesn't seem much of a threat to Pakistan's chances of a series-equalising win. Abrar Ahmed has made the surface look like a raging turner on day one, but on the other side of the weekend, the pitch only appears to be improving. Saud Shakeel is batting with the confidence of a man playing his 92nd Test rather than his second. Mohammad Nawaz is sweeping his way through spin, and using his feet against seam. Monday morning blues? This Multan crowd doesn't know the meaning of it.

Faheem Ashraf falls early in the morning, but there are no signs of Shakeel following suit. Across this series, the newbie to Test cricket has carried himself with the vibe of a high-schooler rocking his dad's best clothes for a formal occasion, and pulling it off with gusto. This stage suits him fine. His fourth-innings average in first-class cricket is in excess of 66. He is born for this occasion, and an innings conceived in various Quaid-e-Azam trophy competitions is being delivered against England.

Nawaz's promotion ahead of Salman Agha catches enough people off-guard, and wonder if the latter was nursing a niggle, particularly as Pakistan eschew a left-right combination for Nawaz to come in at seven. But the variety in the two batters' playing styles still gives England plenty to ponder.

Nawaz sweeps one of every five balls he faces off Leach or Joe Root; Shakeel one in 52. Shakeel is content to defend - nearly half of all deliveries against spin are defended or left alone. Nawaz, meanwhile, is pointedly proactive against spin, scoring 28 in 30 balls. England push fields out, and get catchers in for the sweep. Then, as the pair exchange ends, the fielders creep in that bit closer, sweepers move squarer.

Pakistan cricket has days like these. Three chases in excess of 300 in the past decade would attest to that, as would two remarkable Test matches against Australia in Karachi. Multan, meanwhile, was home to a classic fourth-innings heist against this very team in 2005 - Pakistan dragging a side that had just won the Ashes over the summer back down to earth with a 22-run win. It would prove to be a dynasty-killer, with that England side dismantled over the next few seasons. England now seem to be building another dynasty, and Pakistan have the chance to prove the foundations are wobblier than Brendon McCullum would have you believe.

As lunch beckons, Ben Stokes turns to Mark Wood. It's not the first time he's tried that; 24 hours earlier, with Pakistan's opening partnership unbroken, Wood was brought on for a two-over pre-lunch burst. He couldn't break through but he did enough to whet English appetites: Mohammad Rizwan was given out lbw before it was overturned on review, and Abdullah Shafique had taken on a short ball, only to get a top edge that sailed for six. Stokes knew the outcome did not override the potential behind the strategy. So here, with lunch three overs away, is Wood once more.

At times like these, Wood has all the subtlety of a sledgehammer, and all its destructive power, too. There's a short leg around the bat, and three men in catching positions on the leg side. Just before he bowls the first ball, Zak Crawley moves out of first slip, and positions himself at catching square leg. Unless it's a phenomenally good double bluff, even the most unobservant viewer would tell you to watch out for a short-ball burst.

Nawaz ducks the first, but it's the boundary he scores off the second that really encourages England. It was straying on to the hips. That could suggest inaccuracy on the bowler's part, but he might as easily have been testing Pakistan's willingness for a dab down the leg side. It doesn't get up high enough, and Nawaz clips it past the wicketkeeper for a four. The trap is set, the bait in place.

Every one of Wood's 12 balls before lunch lands short of a length. It's an unsustainable barrage from a bowler who frequently exceeds the 90mph mark, just returning to Test cricket from an injury that kept him out in the first Test. It's a desperate throw of the dice on a monopoly board where Pakistan own most of the best properties. As with any kind of baiting, it only works if the baited engages. Pakistan do not need to engage, and England are desperate for them to.

Aside from that flicked four, Pakistan try and play just two of Wood's short balls, leaving all others well alone. But with the risk-reward ratio stacked so thoroughly in the bowler's favour, it's a very high number. Once Nawaz, and then Shakeel are drawn by the temptation of an easy boundary to fine leg, the carrot of four fewer runs to get dangles much too closely to be resisted. Twice, Pakistan walk into the trap, and twice, the trap springs shut.

Few among the locals at the ground are looking forward to lunch; the knot in the stomach leaves little room for an appetite. The calm assuredness the long-suffering fans get to see so rarely has vanished again, to be replaced by the frenzied status quo, at the end of which only lies heroic failure.

They still cheer animatedly when Abrar swishes and flicks his way to a breezy 17, but there's a knowingness to it all, like counting your pennies as you save up for a dream car you know you'll never be able to afford. There's comfort in moving closer to that unobtainable destination, and as Pakistan count the runs required each time Abrar hits another boundary, that's exactly what it feels like.

Pakistan are snapped out of that daydream soon enough, and before long, England squash the last dregs of resistance out of Zahid Mahmood and Mohammad Ali. Far from adding to the improbable flurry of recent fourth-innings heroics, Multan instead bears witness to the burgeoning list of Pakistan's batting collapses. Last week, they lost their last five wickets for nine runs. This time, 38.

The sun is still shining just as brightly, but as the fans stream out from behind the shaded columns of the stadium, they can no longer see it. Pakistan cricket has days like these, too.