Tactics Board: What total to aim for, the importance of Ish Sodhi, and who will target Adam Zampa?
A look at where the final between Australia and New Zealand could be won or lost
Runs on the board in a big final is a cliche in cricket. But in the last four World Cup finals, across both white-ball formats, the chasing teams have emerged victorious. In this World Cup too, the chasing teams won both semi-finals with an over to spare.
Since the start of 2020, Australian batters average 14 at a strike rate of 122.08 against legspinners in T20Is. In the semi-final, Shadab Khan's four-wicket haul almost sent Australia out of the World Cup. Hayden Walsh Jr troubled them when they were in the Caribbean earlier this year. In the final, Australia need to be wary of Ish Sodhi. In nine games against Australia, he has taken 16 wickets at a strike rate of 12.7.
Adam Zampa is having a dream tournament. He is the leading wicket-taker since the Super 12s with 12 scalps at an economy of just 5.69. He has varied his line, length and pace cleverly to make it hard for batters to attack him.
In an ideal scenario, Devon Conway would have been the perfect match-up to go after Zampa due to his ability to play spin well. However, a bizarre hand injury means he sits out of the final. This means New Zealand's top five are likely to be all right-handed batters. New Zealand, though, can change that by promoting either James Neesham or Santner up the order.
Other match-ups to watch out for
Warner vs Southee and Boult
Warner has contrasting numbers against Boult and Southee. He has dominated Southee by scoring 84 runs off just 44 balls without being dismissed. Meanwhile, Boult has kept Warner quiet by conceding just 37 runs off 38 balls and has dismissed him once. It will be interesting to see how Warner goes against these two if there is some swing on offer. If there is no swing, it would be worth bringing on Santner against Australia's top 3 to prevent them from winning the powerplay.
Since the start of 2018, Guptill has struck at 90.27 against left-arm quicks, and has been dismissed once every 24 deliveries. Mitchell Starc and Australia would have this in mind when they take field on Sunday.
Gaurav Sundararaman is a senior stats analyst at ESPNcricinfo